Wednesday: 1 AM Rainfall on the way!

That's right folks...RAINFALL IS ON THE WAY! And if some of the models are right, we could be for quiet a bit' as well! I am hoping that the GFS model is right, especially the run that just came out. (00z run/7 PM EST.) Below is the 60 hour accumulated rainfall estimating from the latest GFS run. Lets hope that this is correct! This would be an absolute blessing! I have my concerns as always (as is typical with the GFS model) that is may be having convective feedback problems, meaning that it is overplaying the rainfall amounts. However, it's been consistent with these beneficial amounts of rainfall...the NAM is quiet a bit' lower with amounts of rain with the latest run, but I'm not buying that solution either. But, we shall see. Early next week could bring another beneficial round of rainfall! So the pattern seems to be much, much more encouraging. Also, some much colder air may be in the works sometime soon as well, but I want to see more solid signs that this will occur before forecasting that.

BTW: I do want to point out that the possibility does exist for some severe storms on Thursday, and that you need to keep an eye to your local TV stations or NWS. The models have been in agreement that the severe weather threat is increasing as we head closer to the event, so that is something to keep an eye with.

That's it for this very early mornings post. Have a great day everyone.

Saturday: 11:15 PM A Taste of Fall!

Good evening everyone! I hope you are all enjoying this nice Autumn air we've had the last few days. We certainly deserved it after this horrible summer heat we've had to deal with for so long now...essentially since May. Unfortunately this doesn't appear to have sparked a pattern change, as a cut off low is what brought this wonderful weather. However, I still feel that we will see that pattern change at the end of the month. I tell ya, this fall has been so warm and dry...unfortunately all signs from official forecasters are pointing to a warm and dry continuation throughout the rest of the Autumn season and into the winter months. Again, I'm not jumping on that boat just yet.

So what's in store for the week ahead? Rain chances are there but don't appear to be very good. But we'll hope for the best. Temps. look to head above average yet again. After next week though, I'm hoping that we may finally begin to see a transition to a more rainy pattern, and hopefully a major pattern shift. But we shall see. Hopefully soon I will be able to give very detailed forecast with a 5 day forecast. I'll work on it, but it will take some serious time on my part. I may test it out first before doing it daily.

Have a wonderful Sunday!

Saturday: 12:15 AM

Good morning everyone. Sorry AGAIN for not posting on a more regular basis. Anyway, I've got my laptop reformated and all the links are now on here, so I'll be able to make more posting via the laptop from now on. I'm so excited! For those of you looking for the winter weather outlook, I have provided a link on top of the blog postings where you can access it anytime you want. I'll keep it there for the remainder of the Fall and Winter seasons...that way you'll also be able to go back and see where I goofed badly.

I'll admit, I am becoming very concerned that I may have totally bombed my winter forecast...but I gotta stick to what I believe may happen. I guess after reading around, I'm the only one who even thinks snowfall is a possibility for the Southeast. Most people seem to think we are in for a very warm and snowless winter, and I am afraid that may be true...however, I am not going to believe that just because the majority believe so...I still think we could be in for a cold winter. Obviously we WILL see mild conditions, but we will see cold conditions also. But until I see signs of a prolonged warm winter, my forecast will remain unchanged. I have yet to see signs that La Nina is becoming strong.

As for the current weather, some of us saw some rainfall the last few days, although it was very light in nature. Very light. But rain is rain, and we'll take any bit of it right now. This drought is really downright amazing. This fall is going to be very short, IF we even see one. The leaves are very dry, and may not even have enough moisture to turn colors before falling off the trees. But we'll see...

I am seeing signs of a pattern change that I think will occur by the end of the month. The NAO is forecast to nosedive, and the PNA is forecast to become positive, meaning a pattern change is a definite possibility. Obviously this could change, but it is one of the few solid signs I've seen for a true pattern change. Cross your fingers! We may see some rainfall by mid-week with an approaching front, but nothing of great consequence. Temps. behind this front won't be cold also, in fact, still above normal the way things look now. That's it for tonight...

BTW: Obviously my strength is Southeast weather, but if you want weather forecast to other areas of the US then please let me know either by leaving me a comment or by e-mailing me. I just added my e-mail contact address on the top right corner.

Thursday Evening: WINTER OUTLOOK

Alright folks...here is my official winter outlook and what I think may happen this winter. Please keep in mind that what follows is just my best estimate, and is, at least to me, going to be the most difficult winter to forecast in the last few years. There are SO many variables that could change the outcome, and some people think that forecasting for an entire season is crazy, and for good reason. Just one simple little difference in the Jet Stream configuration could drastically change whether we see a cold winter or a warm winter. Now many of you may have heard rumors that La Nina is developing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean waters. This occurs when the deep, cool waters are pulled to the surface, resulting in below average waters that spread across the Ocean, and depending on how strong it becomes, can cover either a little or most of the equatorial waters. Believe it or not, what may seem like just a simple little temperature change can, in fact, have a DRASTIC affect on not just the type of pattern we have, but the globe as a whole. La Nina is the opposite of El Nino, which is the warming of the equatorial Pacific waters. Now, right now, La Nina is barely in a weak state, and this is very important in determing whether or not this will affect our winter this year. Here is a picture of the latest temperature departures in the La Nina area. Now, as you can see, the area just off the coast of South America is where the most noticeable change in temperatures are occuring. However, notice that they don't extend very far West yet. Now, while they have been shifting Westward, it's not doing so at a alarming rate. In a strong La Nina regime, the entire region West of South America would be entirely below average. But we haven't seen many strong La Ninas' dating back to 1980. I believe there have only been 5, and I highly doubt that we will even get to a moderate stage. With that being said, the latest models are actually forecasting the temperatures to even out, and in most cases, even rise some. What does this mean? It would put a stop to the dropping temperatures, which would mean that a weak La Nina would occur at best. Most likely, this wouldn't have a huge affect on our pattern. But if it did, what would it bring? Well, in strong La Ninas, we would have a dry, and rather warm winter. But in weak and moderate La Ninas, we actually normally have at least one decent snowfall during the winter, and normally during the month of December. Unfortunately, Spring usually arrived early. However, am I banking on us having a weak La Nina type pattern? Right now, I'm very skeptical of leaning one way or the other. I am very concerned leaning towards a La Nina pattern, because last winter El Nino developed, only to disappear, having no affect on us last winter. And I am concerned that perhaps this La Nina is going to do the same thing: just disappear, and with the models hinting at warming temperatures, I'm beginning to wonder if that will happen. However, I have to keep in mind that La Nina conditions could affect our weather as well this winter. So, what about this fall. Well, obviously, we are already off to a warm Autumn season. I think the fall foliage peak will occur a few weeks later this season. I think that once we head into late October and especially early November, we will see a cooler weather pattern develop. But in the meantime, the models look very bleak for any type of cold weather the next few weeks. I believe the rest of this Autumn season will very dry overall as well. Now, what about November? I think overall we will see cooler weather, and hopefully we will have a cool Thanksgiving. Already we are seeing very different conditions compared to last winter. Now, from December to March, things become a little more questionable. It's very uncertain what will occur, but I believe that especially the Midwest will have a very cold and snowy winter, with periodic cold spells here into the Southeast. Depending on whether or not the Southern Branch of the Jet Stream brings storms into the Gulf, we WILL see some snow this year. My hunch is that we will see 1 decent snowstorm, and when I say decent, I mean at least 3" of snow. Obviously the mountains will see more. What will be very important as well in this winter season is the PNA (Pacific/North American Oscillation), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), and AO (Atlantic Oscillation.) Usually what brings cooler air into the East is the NAO when it is in a negative phase. And here is what I mean. This is a chart of the NAO index. The PNA and AO ones look exactly the same. The Black line is what has occured, and the red lines are the models projections of what they think will occur (though they are highly unpredictable.) Anyway, whenever the black is below the 0 line in the negative numbers, that means the NAO is in a negative phase, which would typically point to blocking in Canada which allows cold air to filter down into the Eastern US. The PNA works a little differently, and normally when it's positive, the West is colder and the East in warmer. This is how a lot of forecasters predict colder air coming. While not always effective, it's a great indicator of where the pattern is going. I'm using this a lot in my predictions, and notice how during most of this summer, it was negative. This doesn't play a role in our weather much during the summer season, but it shows a pattern. It makes me think that we may see some ups and downs in the NAO index this winter, which would mean cold spells and warmer spells. But if that NAO takes a nosedive, and we can get a storm in the Gulf, then we could see some good snows this year. I'm sorry if this all seems a little boring and off topic, but I figured I would kinda explain some things and show you as I wrote out my winter outlook. And this is just one little thing that forecasting look out when making projections and forecasts. Hopefully your beginning to see how difficult it can be to make forecasts, and why meteorologists are often times wrong. :-)
So, here is a "outline" of my thoughts:
1.) The Autumn season will remain warmer than normal, with cooling weather during November. I don't see much hope for drought busting rains.

2.) I expect one decent snowstorm this winter, which will probably occur during the month of December or January. The decent snowstorm will drop at least 3" on the valley floor, with much more in the mountains. More light snows will occur this winter.

3.) The NAO will take some wild swings, meaning we will see some drastic temperature affects. And assuming that the PNA isn't positive most of the winter, we will see some true cold air. My concern is that the Pacific Northwest will get locked into a stormy pattern resulting in mostly mild temperatures in the East. Then again, this would occur mostly if the La Nina pattern does occur, and again, I'm not convinced that it will.

4.) Hopefully we will start seeing more rainfall once we see a major pattern shift. We have a serious drought that just doesn't want to go away...

I want to point out something very important. What would change the outcome of the this winter the most is actually what will occur out West. If the Pacific Northwest gets locked into a stormy pattern, then this could cause us to have warm weather. Why? Depending on how the storms track into the PNW, they would actually help to draw UP warm air from the Gulf of Mexico as they track to our North. I am hoping very much that this doesn't happen, and it occurs more in a strong La Nina which I don't expect will occur. But then again, it doesn't take El Nino or La Nina for that to happen. If you remember a few years ago, we had a similar pattern which lead to a remarkably warm January. Anyway, just pointed that out to let you know how it could be a warmer winter overall...
That's it for now...PLEASE post a comment if you have any questions, whether it be me needing to clarify something, or whether you have a question about something I didn't mention. Have a great evening everyone...sorry I don't have time to post more. This is just my intial outlook, and again, could be wrong depending on what pattern(s) occur over the next month or so. Normally you can get a good idea of what the weather will bring during the winter when the cool air finally begins marching in just based on the NAO and such...stuff I don't have time to go over right now.

Also, I'm sorry if I seemed a little "scared" of saying whether the weather will be this or that. This is the first time I've actually posted an entire winter weather projection, and I'm still uncertain of several factors that weren't mentioned above. So I'll leave you with this: this winter is very uncertain. It could either be very cold or mild in my interpretation. I don't expect records warmth, and even if it does average warmer than average, it won't be drastically warmer. So I'm sticking to that much. So we'll see how it turns out! And sorry for any typos in the outlook...I didn't feel like reading over it over and over again to find them. :-)

Thursday: 1 PM

Just to let you all know, unless something comes up, I am posting my Winter Forecast this evening...

Tuesday: 12:45 PM

Just a quick update here before I head off to work, but I wanted to share something with ya'll that may very well change my winter forecast. As I have said many times over, something that bothered my was whether or not La Nina conditions would persists, or simply fade like the El Nino did last year. Well, sure enough, according to the latest ENSO models, the temperatures are actually forecast to RISE in the South Pacific over the next few months. While a gradual rise, this would mean a WEAK La Nina at best (good news for us Southerners), or perhaps no La Nina conditions at all. I'll talk more about this later on...especially when my winter forecast comes out. Off to work now...have a wonderful afternoon everyone.

Monday: 10:30 PM

Just a quick update tonight, and it won't pertain to the weather forecast...that will be tomorrow. But I'm writing just to let ya'll know that I'm going to post my winter outlook sometime this week, most likely Thursday or Friday, but could be anytime. Chances are it will be rather lengthy, as there are many, many critical things to cover, and it's going to be very difficult to give an accurate forecast, but I'll try my best.

~Jordan

Monday: 12 AM

Good morning everyone. :-) So sorry I haven't posted in awhile. The weather has been boring overall, and I finally got my laptop situation figured out. In fact, I am now typing this with my newest laptop with wireless internet! I'm so excited. It's nice being able to sit back and type. Anyway, thanks to everyone who wished me a Happy Birthday Wednesday. For those of you who don't know, I turned 18 on Wednesday. And, I got my license Thursday! So it was a good week to say the least.

So what's in store in the weather department? Well, to be honest, not much. We appear to be headed for more 90 degree heat tomorrow and Tuesday. Fortunately, no 100s though, and we are done with those for the year. Rain chances don't look good either, with potentially some showers on Thursday with an approaching cold front, and behind this front temperatures will fall back, but still above average. The true signs of Autumn are still not in the foreseeable future, but I'll let you know as soon as I see light at the end of the tunnel. Autumn officially arrived around 5 AM Sunday morning, so summer is over now. It may not feel like it, but it is. The Atlantic has some items of interests, but what will occur with those systems is still to be seen. The Gulf does need to be on the lookout next week for potential activity, but we'll see.

That's it for now. Sorry again for taking so long to write another post. Have a wonderful day everyone!

~Jordan

Monday: 10 PM

Good evening everyone. I'm sorry I haven't been posting much at all this week. It's been rather crazy. For one, I'm having to have my Dell laptop replaced thanks to Dell, who failed to put in a good backlight, so I could barely see anything on the screen. Anyway, the weather has calmed down a bit' to say the least, but that doesn't by any means mean it's going to stay that way. For one, a taste of Autumn weather is already on it's way, and will "breeze" over our area by this weekend. If all goes as planned, high temperatures both Saturday and Sunday will be around 80 degrees! What a nice surprise that will be. Obviously the further north you go, the cooler it will be. However, this doesn't appear to be a long lasting affect, but I do think the amount of 90 degree days we have left this year are very limited. 100 degree days are definately over, at least judging from the models. And given the pattern we are heading into, I can't see dangerous heat like we say in August occuring again. But one thing is for sure: we need rain! The Southeast continues in it's summer drought, and things aren't looking too bright either. While Chattanooga could get some rainfall this week, it doesn't look like much, and definately not drought busting amounts. And the models continue to show the drought continuing. And with La Nina developing, I am becoming very concerned that this drought may last through the winter as well. It may very well be until Spring when we get very heavy rainfall amounts, but that's aways off, and I don't want to speculate about what could happen then. I'm still gathering information for my Winter outlook, but I gotta admit, I'm still up in the air about it. Could be interesting, or it could be completely boring. But we'll see. Right now there are still some areas of interest in the tropics. I'll post a picture link with the latest info. But nothing at this time appears to be on the verge of becoming a hurricane...at least nothing strong. And the pattern could very well help the United States by steering away any tropical activity. So just continue to hope and pray that we get out of this drought shortly. Tomorrow, I'll give a weekend snapshot (because it does look wonderful!), along with more information on what it to come. In the meantime, hope that the model below is right! The 18z is actually showing some decent rains around here as I just checked them, however, I don't have much trust for these runs. They tend to be less accurate because the instrument data from balloons, etc. isn't inserted into them.






And here is the latest Hurricane information you can get. Remember, you can always click on it to make it larger.

Thursday: 9:15 PM

Hello everyone. Sorry about the lack of posting this week. There really hasn't been too much to talk about. And I'm posting this current post with my new laptop. It's nice being able to sit back on the recliner and chat and what not. Anyway, the Eastern Seaboard needs to be on the lookout for what could become a tropical storm the next few days. Models continue to show that a tropical feature will develop and move towards the Carolinas, but today the system as a whole didn't look too good at all, thanks to shear. But tomorrow should be a better day for the system to develop. More later...gotta run.

Late Sunday Breaking News

This is just downright amazing what you are about to read. In the last post I made, there was no named tropical systems in the Atlantic. And guess what? Now we have a Category 5 Hurricane in the Caribbean! That's right...Saturday morning, the area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean became Tropical Storm Felix, and one day later, we have a Category 5 storm. In fact, the storm today, Sunday, went from a Category 1 storm to a Category 5 storm in less than 24 hrs. Simply amazing. You won't see any type of storm intensify quicker than what this storm did today. "Wow" doesn't even emphasize the incredible magnitude of this storm. Here are some pictures now.
This is a mighty impressive storm I must say. It even makes Dean look like a wimp...not that it was, but this storm has the potential to be absolutely massive. I wouldn't be surprised if it winds up being as big as Katrina was. The good news is that it, once again, doesn't appear to be headed for the United States.

Another photo from the Caribbean. There is another invest not too far behind this one, but the water should be churned up, so how strong it becomes, IF it becomes a named storm, is up in the air.

Early Friday Update

Just a quick update...and it won't pertain to weather right now, as I'll talk about that later on. But just wanted all to know that I'm currently working on some HTML editing, trying to make the site look better and what not. And not knowing much about HTML/CSS, it's taking me forever. So sorry for the construction going on, but hopefully it will look better here shortly.

Thursday: 10:30 AM

Just a very quick update this morning, and hopefully a complete one later on today. The tropics are heating up once again, and there is the possibility that something could become organized here shortly. There are currently 3 invests in the Atlantic, and three more in the Eastern Pacific! So a lot to look out for in the short term and long term.

Tuesday: 11 PM

Evening everyone. Sorry I haven't been posting. I just hope that people are actually reading this. Please feel free to leave comments. Anyway, I am trying my best to come up with a winter forecast, and thanks to the Farmers Almanac Winter Forecast released today, I'm afraid it's left me even more uncertain as to what will really happen. If the Farmers Almanac is indeed correct, then the South is in for a winter it hasn't seen in many, many years. However, as much as I hate to say it, I'm not sure if I agree with it this year. They called for a cold winter last year, but unfortunately it was a rather mild winter overall. But this is where I'm really mixed up on what to believe: everyone called for El Nino conditions last year, but they never materialized. This year, all, save for the Farmers Almanac, are calling for La Nina conditions. But after the bad calls last winter, I'm not sure if I want to believe that either. But I'm looking at other things right now quickly trying my best to get at least a glimpse of what I think will occur this winter. I for one am leaning towards a warmer winter. But at the same time, I need to keep in mind that this summer has been very hot, and history shows that these kind of summers often lead to very cold winters as well. So I have a ton of information to go over, and hopefully by October 1st, if not sooner, I will have my "outlook." But don't bank on it being 100% accurate. Given the conditions this year, I believe this is going to be the most unpredictable winter yet: it's going to be very difficult for anyone to predict an accurate forecast. So what will the winter bring? My initial thoughts are to go against the Farmers Almanac for the most part and say the winter, overall, will be milder and drier in part to La Nina. Now keep in mind I may very well say otherwise when my complete outlook comes out. Why? I'm keeping a close eye on just how strong la Nina is going to be. Also, the NAO and blocking patters will obviously be very vital to what this year brings. I am hoping VERY much that cold dominates this winter and that snow will finally fly like we haven't seen in years and years and years, but whether or not that will come true is still in question. Anyway, that's it for now. I hope you all got to see and enjoy the Lunar Eclipse this morning. It was very neat to say the least. Next one isn't too far away either: February 21st, 2008.

~Jordan

Thursday: 9:30

Sorry for not posting yesterday, and sorry that todays post is late. Just got back from work, so this will be a rather short entry. Chattanooga hit 105 degrees today folks. Simply amazing. And according to the local weather meteorologists, the airport actually topped out at 106 degrees, which would have tied the all time record for any date, EVER, but the temperature didn't remain at 106 for 5 minutes, which is the amount of time that it becomes "official." So technically the high was only 105 degrees. But still, amazing to say the least. And as long as this drought continues, I think the models may be downplaying just how hot it will be for the next few days. But remember a few days ago I mentioned that a pattern change may be in the makings, and sure enough, the GFS continues to show this possibility, beginning possibly as early as next weekend and especially the next week (first week of September.) I hope so, because this heat is really getting to me. I cannot wait for those nice, comfortable Autumn temperatures. And the GFS model continues to show increased rain chances in the next few weeks, so let's hope and pray that this all comes into play. Again, it's still aways away, and it's not by any means set in stone. But the GFS is fantastic at forecasting pattern shifts, and hopefully that is in the makings. That's it for today. Not much else to talk about other than the REDICULOUS rains and storms that are occuring in the Midwest. Absolutely amazing. Maybe I'll get some stats and photos up on that tomorrow sometime. Night everyone.

Tuesday: 9:30 PM

Well, this is much later than I said it would be, and I'm sorry for that! Anyway, Hurricane Dean made landfall today on the Yucatan as a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 165 MPH (or 264 kmph for you metric fans), causing extensive damage and quiet amazing rainfall. The pressure fell to 906 mb (26.71") shortly before landfall, which will go down in the history books as being the 9th strongest hurricane in terms of pressure, and the first Category 5 storm to hit the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Andrew back in 1992. (Which some of you may remember.) The storm has fallen apart as expected, now down to 80 mph sustained winds. And they are forecast to intensify once again as it hits the Gulf, but I really question how much re-development will be able to occur before it hits central Mexico. Anyways, point being, the worst of the storm is over, and now Mexico braces for whatever Dean brings their way.
Now, on to Chattanooga weather. Today was not quiet as hot as recent days, but still hot nonetheless. Looking at the 18z (7 PM) GFS model, the very last frame, which happens to be over two weeks away, showed a low pressure system finally bringing down some much cooler air this way, but that's rediculous to believe right now, since it's the worst of the models runs, and it's the first time it's showed up. Plus, it's two weeks away. So in the meantime, this pattern just isn't going to break down, and the heat and extreme drought conditions will continue. I am putting together a winter weather outlook that I will hope to post sometime in September, if not October. And I'll tell you right off the bat, it's going to be a tough call. History shows hot summers lead to cold winters, yet La Nina is being forecasted by NOAA to provide a warm and dry winter. So I'm not sure which way to lean yet because NOAA last year forecasted an El Nino event, which never really materialized at all. In fact, what should have been a cold, snowy winter for the South was mild overall. Anyway, I'll hope to have that for ya'll sometime in the next month or two.

Also Invest 92L hasn't made any progress today, and continues to remain very unorganized. However, the SHIPS model still shows this thing developing, and conditions are favorable, so we'll wait and see what happens. Also, if it does develop, the track is very worrisome, as the most likely candidate for landfall would be Florida. Again, this is all speculation right now, but we'll have to see what happens. That's all for now. Update tomorrow. Night everyone.

Monday: 10 PM

Sorry for the late update today. Hurricane Dean finally became a Category 5 storm as he approaches the Yucatan. The good news, however, is that he will not affect the United States, at least in terms of terrible winds. The Southwest may eventually get some of the moisture from this, but we'll see. Here is the satellite image. Remember, you can always click it to enlarge it.
Meanwhile, the Southeast continues to suffer from this, in some cases, historic heatwave. Chattanooga for one has hit 100 degrees or more 4 times this month, which is even more amazing considering we normally only hit 100 maybe once every few or more years. Two of those 100+ degree days broke records, both of which were consecutive. And the pattern doesn't look to break any time soon. The high pressure system responsible for this seems to be parked, not wanting to go anywhere. So, with that being said, lets turn to something that's worth talking about. Invest 92L became official today, and lies well north of the Lesser Antilles. This one bears significant watching, as the SHIPS model wants to develop this thing into a Hurricane by Friday, and the track brings it towards Florida by weeks end. So I'll keep an eye on that and bring an update tomorrow on what it's up to. Here is the current satellite image of it. As you can see, it's nothing of great consequence right now. In fact, there really isn't any surface circulation right now, but that's what we'll look for if the convection begins to organize. Again, I'll have another update tomorrow. I'll hopefully post a little earlier also. Meanwhile, here is a bit' of good news if
you, like me, are tired of this rediculous heat: Autumn is only 33 days away!

Friday: 11 PM Update

The latest information would suggest that the track of Hurricane Dean has shifted south a little bit', so the threat of a landfalling Hurricane along the immediate Gulf Coast line appears to be less likely. But, wow, is he looking impressive. Obviously since the sun has set we cannot see the visible satellite imagery of Dean, but the IR satellite shows a very, very impressive storm. This storm is intensifying at a very fast rate, and as of 11 PM, winds are now sustained at 145 mph inside the eyewall surrounding the center of the storm. This makes Hurricane Dean now a Category 4 storm. Jamaica looks to be pounded by this one, as the eye will cross directly over the island, or a few miles south of it. This would put the absolute worst portion of the storm over the island. Hurricanes have 4 different "quadrants", per say, and the worst, most destructive part of the storm is the Northeast quadrant. While under a Hurricane Watch now, the island will most certainly be under a Hurricane Warning by tomorrow. I hate to say it, but I don't wanna see the videos after this storm passes them. Just look at the very well defined eye now on the IR satellite via the photo below. Personally, I think this storm will undoubtedly reach Cat. 5 status. Often times the storm may weaken temporarily while it undergoes what they call the "eye wall replacement" cycle. Basically, the eye has to keep forming new eyes, and it causes, as stated above, temporary weakening, but by no means does it mean the storm as a whole is weakening. South Texas needs to monitor this storm VERY closely. If this storm crosses the Yucatan Pen. as expected, a lot of weakening will occur. What happens after that is vitally important. If it crosses the Gulf, strengethening may occur again before hitting Texas, but if the storm continues over land into Mexico, then the storm will get ripped apart. So, many questions still need to be answered. But the high pressure system that is giving us all this hot weather is the reason the Gulf appears to be saved by this monster right now. Update tomorrow at some point. I cannot wait to see what the visible satellite of this storm looks like. What a "perfect"
storm this should be!

Friday: 4:30 PM

Here is an awesome picture I thought ya'll might wanna see. What a pretty storm I must say. Unfortunately this storm will cause some serious problems for somebody. So enjoy the view from space...To see it enlarged, just click on it.



And on another note, I've noticed that squirrels have started collecting their food for the Fall and Winter seasons. Fall can't be too far away. My hunch is within' 4 weeks, some much cooler air will filter down from Canada...whether it will be permanent or not is another story, but some taste of fall isn't too far away. Meanwhile, the models today look bleak to say the least. Next week looks brutally hot again, with not much hope of rainfall. However, Hurricane Dean will be the biggest cause for concern. Where will he go? That will hopefully be answered by early next week. Enjoy your weekend everyone.

Friday: 11 AM

Not much more news on Hurricane Dean other than the fact he continues heading towards the Lesser Antilles, and at this point, still the Yucutan. HOWEVER, a 5 day forecast track is still obviously highly suceptible to rather significant changes, so a northward jog or southward jog in the storms path is not only possible, but even likely. So if you live along the Gulf of Mexico, anyone should be on the lookout. The scary things about Hurricanes is that they are really the only type of weather phenomenon that behave "as they want." What makes these storms unpredictable for the most part is that they kinda like to go wherever they want. Obviously a steering wind can lead it towards a general direction, but they are powerful enough to make movements north, south, east, or west. An updated visible satellite picture is on the bottom of the post.

Now, Chattanooga hit 104 degrees yesterday!! Even hotter than Wednesdays temperature, which also means that we broke records consecutive days. If there is any good news on the horizon, it would be that 100 degree temperatures seem to be over with at least for the next week, but 90's are still expected to be around. And with added humidity, it will start feeling even worse outside. But not much rain has fallen anyone across the area, and not much is expected in the meantime. Some of you may see some scattered shs/ts today, but other than that, only isolated at best is expected over the next week. Now, if Hurricane Dean does move towards the Gulf of Mexico, then we need to be on the lookout for perhaps some much needed rain that often times comes with Hurricanes around our area. But that's still a ways off, so anything can happen. And just for the record, Autumn is officially only 36 days away!

~Jordan

Photo of Dean:

Track expected of Dean:

It's official now. Hurricane Dean continues to churn in the Carribbean this morning, and visible Satellite imagery showed a much more organized storm compared to yesterday, and much bigger for that matter. In fact, in the picture below, you can see an eye clearly forming now.

The track continues to show an impact on the Yucutan Peninsula, however, anything can happen in 5 days.

Now, Chattanooga will continue to "bake" today, and yesterday we set a record of 103 degrees for the date! 103. Today looks to climb above 100 degrees as well, which will mark the third time this summer to do so...which, interestingly enough, even for Chattanooga standards is rare. We may see some storms finally begin to fire up early next week, but with a drought like we have, don't get your hopes up. Update later...

BTW: I've just changed some options, so ANYONE can comment now!! You have a question? Leave a comment! It's that easy...looking forward to hearing from you.

The Tropics are heating up!


Might as well go ahead and make a quick update. The tropics are heating up, and what is soon to be Hurricane Dean is churning up the waters in the Carribbean. Where it's heading is the worrisome question right now, as the Gulf looks to be a definite possibility early next week, but for now, the Lesser Antilles and Yucatan look to be in the immediate path. Any jog northward could mean that Florida and anyone along the Gulf Coast could be influenced by this TS (soon to be hurricane.) Here is the latest track and satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Dean. (Winds are currently 70 MPH) So the big question: will it affect us? Way, way too far out to be sure, but if it hits the Gulf Coast region, we would be in a favorable area for tropical rains, which as strange as it sounds, it could take a tropical cyclone to break this pattern we are in right now. The pressure is down to 991 mb as of 11 PM, so it is strengthening.

Test

Just testing this out...