Wednesday: 1 AM Rainfall on the way!

That's right folks...RAINFALL IS ON THE WAY! And if some of the models are right, we could be for quiet a bit' as well! I am hoping that the GFS model is right, especially the run that just came out. (00z run/7 PM EST.) Below is the 60 hour accumulated rainfall estimating from the latest GFS run. Lets hope that this is correct! This would be an absolute blessing! I have my concerns as always (as is typical with the GFS model) that is may be having convective feedback problems, meaning that it is overplaying the rainfall amounts. However, it's been consistent with these beneficial amounts of rainfall...the NAM is quiet a bit' lower with amounts of rain with the latest run, but I'm not buying that solution either. But, we shall see. Early next week could bring another beneficial round of rainfall! So the pattern seems to be much, much more encouraging. Also, some much colder air may be in the works sometime soon as well, but I want to see more solid signs that this will occur before forecasting that.

BTW: I do want to point out that the possibility does exist for some severe storms on Thursday, and that you need to keep an eye to your local TV stations or NWS. The models have been in agreement that the severe weather threat is increasing as we head closer to the event, so that is something to keep an eye with.

That's it for this very early mornings post. Have a great day everyone.

Saturday: 11:15 PM A Taste of Fall!

Good evening everyone! I hope you are all enjoying this nice Autumn air we've had the last few days. We certainly deserved it after this horrible summer heat we've had to deal with for so long now...essentially since May. Unfortunately this doesn't appear to have sparked a pattern change, as a cut off low is what brought this wonderful weather. However, I still feel that we will see that pattern change at the end of the month. I tell ya, this fall has been so warm and dry...unfortunately all signs from official forecasters are pointing to a warm and dry continuation throughout the rest of the Autumn season and into the winter months. Again, I'm not jumping on that boat just yet.

So what's in store for the week ahead? Rain chances are there but don't appear to be very good. But we'll hope for the best. Temps. look to head above average yet again. After next week though, I'm hoping that we may finally begin to see a transition to a more rainy pattern, and hopefully a major pattern shift. But we shall see. Hopefully soon I will be able to give very detailed forecast with a 5 day forecast. I'll work on it, but it will take some serious time on my part. I may test it out first before doing it daily.

Have a wonderful Sunday!

Saturday: 12:15 AM

Good morning everyone. Sorry AGAIN for not posting on a more regular basis. Anyway, I've got my laptop reformated and all the links are now on here, so I'll be able to make more posting via the laptop from now on. I'm so excited! For those of you looking for the winter weather outlook, I have provided a link on top of the blog postings where you can access it anytime you want. I'll keep it there for the remainder of the Fall and Winter seasons...that way you'll also be able to go back and see where I goofed badly.

I'll admit, I am becoming very concerned that I may have totally bombed my winter forecast...but I gotta stick to what I believe may happen. I guess after reading around, I'm the only one who even thinks snowfall is a possibility for the Southeast. Most people seem to think we are in for a very warm and snowless winter, and I am afraid that may be true...however, I am not going to believe that just because the majority believe so...I still think we could be in for a cold winter. Obviously we WILL see mild conditions, but we will see cold conditions also. But until I see signs of a prolonged warm winter, my forecast will remain unchanged. I have yet to see signs that La Nina is becoming strong.

As for the current weather, some of us saw some rainfall the last few days, although it was very light in nature. Very light. But rain is rain, and we'll take any bit of it right now. This drought is really downright amazing. This fall is going to be very short, IF we even see one. The leaves are very dry, and may not even have enough moisture to turn colors before falling off the trees. But we'll see...

I am seeing signs of a pattern change that I think will occur by the end of the month. The NAO is forecast to nosedive, and the PNA is forecast to become positive, meaning a pattern change is a definite possibility. Obviously this could change, but it is one of the few solid signs I've seen for a true pattern change. Cross your fingers! We may see some rainfall by mid-week with an approaching front, but nothing of great consequence. Temps. behind this front won't be cold also, in fact, still above normal the way things look now. That's it for tonight...

BTW: Obviously my strength is Southeast weather, but if you want weather forecast to other areas of the US then please let me know either by leaving me a comment or by e-mailing me. I just added my e-mail contact address on the top right corner.