Early Friday Update

Just a quick update...and it won't pertain to weather right now, as I'll talk about that later on. But just wanted all to know that I'm currently working on some HTML editing, trying to make the site look better and what not. And not knowing much about HTML/CSS, it's taking me forever. So sorry for the construction going on, but hopefully it will look better here shortly.

Thursday: 10:30 AM

Just a very quick update this morning, and hopefully a complete one later on today. The tropics are heating up once again, and there is the possibility that something could become organized here shortly. There are currently 3 invests in the Atlantic, and three more in the Eastern Pacific! So a lot to look out for in the short term and long term.

Tuesday: 11 PM

Evening everyone. Sorry I haven't been posting. I just hope that people are actually reading this. Please feel free to leave comments. Anyway, I am trying my best to come up with a winter forecast, and thanks to the Farmers Almanac Winter Forecast released today, I'm afraid it's left me even more uncertain as to what will really happen. If the Farmers Almanac is indeed correct, then the South is in for a winter it hasn't seen in many, many years. However, as much as I hate to say it, I'm not sure if I agree with it this year. They called for a cold winter last year, but unfortunately it was a rather mild winter overall. But this is where I'm really mixed up on what to believe: everyone called for El Nino conditions last year, but they never materialized. This year, all, save for the Farmers Almanac, are calling for La Nina conditions. But after the bad calls last winter, I'm not sure if I want to believe that either. But I'm looking at other things right now quickly trying my best to get at least a glimpse of what I think will occur this winter. I for one am leaning towards a warmer winter. But at the same time, I need to keep in mind that this summer has been very hot, and history shows that these kind of summers often lead to very cold winters as well. So I have a ton of information to go over, and hopefully by October 1st, if not sooner, I will have my "outlook." But don't bank on it being 100% accurate. Given the conditions this year, I believe this is going to be the most unpredictable winter yet: it's going to be very difficult for anyone to predict an accurate forecast. So what will the winter bring? My initial thoughts are to go against the Farmers Almanac for the most part and say the winter, overall, will be milder and drier in part to La Nina. Now keep in mind I may very well say otherwise when my complete outlook comes out. Why? I'm keeping a close eye on just how strong la Nina is going to be. Also, the NAO and blocking patters will obviously be very vital to what this year brings. I am hoping VERY much that cold dominates this winter and that snow will finally fly like we haven't seen in years and years and years, but whether or not that will come true is still in question. Anyway, that's it for now. I hope you all got to see and enjoy the Lunar Eclipse this morning. It was very neat to say the least. Next one isn't too far away either: February 21st, 2008.

~Jordan

Thursday: 9:30

Sorry for not posting yesterday, and sorry that todays post is late. Just got back from work, so this will be a rather short entry. Chattanooga hit 105 degrees today folks. Simply amazing. And according to the local weather meteorologists, the airport actually topped out at 106 degrees, which would have tied the all time record for any date, EVER, but the temperature didn't remain at 106 for 5 minutes, which is the amount of time that it becomes "official." So technically the high was only 105 degrees. But still, amazing to say the least. And as long as this drought continues, I think the models may be downplaying just how hot it will be for the next few days. But remember a few days ago I mentioned that a pattern change may be in the makings, and sure enough, the GFS continues to show this possibility, beginning possibly as early as next weekend and especially the next week (first week of September.) I hope so, because this heat is really getting to me. I cannot wait for those nice, comfortable Autumn temperatures. And the GFS model continues to show increased rain chances in the next few weeks, so let's hope and pray that this all comes into play. Again, it's still aways away, and it's not by any means set in stone. But the GFS is fantastic at forecasting pattern shifts, and hopefully that is in the makings. That's it for today. Not much else to talk about other than the REDICULOUS rains and storms that are occuring in the Midwest. Absolutely amazing. Maybe I'll get some stats and photos up on that tomorrow sometime. Night everyone.

Tuesday: 9:30 PM

Well, this is much later than I said it would be, and I'm sorry for that! Anyway, Hurricane Dean made landfall today on the Yucatan as a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 165 MPH (or 264 kmph for you metric fans), causing extensive damage and quiet amazing rainfall. The pressure fell to 906 mb (26.71") shortly before landfall, which will go down in the history books as being the 9th strongest hurricane in terms of pressure, and the first Category 5 storm to hit the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Andrew back in 1992. (Which some of you may remember.) The storm has fallen apart as expected, now down to 80 mph sustained winds. And they are forecast to intensify once again as it hits the Gulf, but I really question how much re-development will be able to occur before it hits central Mexico. Anyways, point being, the worst of the storm is over, and now Mexico braces for whatever Dean brings their way.
Now, on to Chattanooga weather. Today was not quiet as hot as recent days, but still hot nonetheless. Looking at the 18z (7 PM) GFS model, the very last frame, which happens to be over two weeks away, showed a low pressure system finally bringing down some much cooler air this way, but that's rediculous to believe right now, since it's the worst of the models runs, and it's the first time it's showed up. Plus, it's two weeks away. So in the meantime, this pattern just isn't going to break down, and the heat and extreme drought conditions will continue. I am putting together a winter weather outlook that I will hope to post sometime in September, if not October. And I'll tell you right off the bat, it's going to be a tough call. History shows hot summers lead to cold winters, yet La Nina is being forecasted by NOAA to provide a warm and dry winter. So I'm not sure which way to lean yet because NOAA last year forecasted an El Nino event, which never really materialized at all. In fact, what should have been a cold, snowy winter for the South was mild overall. Anyway, I'll hope to have that for ya'll sometime in the next month or two.

Also Invest 92L hasn't made any progress today, and continues to remain very unorganized. However, the SHIPS model still shows this thing developing, and conditions are favorable, so we'll wait and see what happens. Also, if it does develop, the track is very worrisome, as the most likely candidate for landfall would be Florida. Again, this is all speculation right now, but we'll have to see what happens. That's all for now. Update tomorrow. Night everyone.

Monday: 10 PM

Sorry for the late update today. Hurricane Dean finally became a Category 5 storm as he approaches the Yucatan. The good news, however, is that he will not affect the United States, at least in terms of terrible winds. The Southwest may eventually get some of the moisture from this, but we'll see. Here is the satellite image. Remember, you can always click it to enlarge it.
Meanwhile, the Southeast continues to suffer from this, in some cases, historic heatwave. Chattanooga for one has hit 100 degrees or more 4 times this month, which is even more amazing considering we normally only hit 100 maybe once every few or more years. Two of those 100+ degree days broke records, both of which were consecutive. And the pattern doesn't look to break any time soon. The high pressure system responsible for this seems to be parked, not wanting to go anywhere. So, with that being said, lets turn to something that's worth talking about. Invest 92L became official today, and lies well north of the Lesser Antilles. This one bears significant watching, as the SHIPS model wants to develop this thing into a Hurricane by Friday, and the track brings it towards Florida by weeks end. So I'll keep an eye on that and bring an update tomorrow on what it's up to. Here is the current satellite image of it. As you can see, it's nothing of great consequence right now. In fact, there really isn't any surface circulation right now, but that's what we'll look for if the convection begins to organize. Again, I'll have another update tomorrow. I'll hopefully post a little earlier also. Meanwhile, here is a bit' of good news if
you, like me, are tired of this rediculous heat: Autumn is only 33 days away!

Friday: 11 PM Update

The latest information would suggest that the track of Hurricane Dean has shifted south a little bit', so the threat of a landfalling Hurricane along the immediate Gulf Coast line appears to be less likely. But, wow, is he looking impressive. Obviously since the sun has set we cannot see the visible satellite imagery of Dean, but the IR satellite shows a very, very impressive storm. This storm is intensifying at a very fast rate, and as of 11 PM, winds are now sustained at 145 mph inside the eyewall surrounding the center of the storm. This makes Hurricane Dean now a Category 4 storm. Jamaica looks to be pounded by this one, as the eye will cross directly over the island, or a few miles south of it. This would put the absolute worst portion of the storm over the island. Hurricanes have 4 different "quadrants", per say, and the worst, most destructive part of the storm is the Northeast quadrant. While under a Hurricane Watch now, the island will most certainly be under a Hurricane Warning by tomorrow. I hate to say it, but I don't wanna see the videos after this storm passes them. Just look at the very well defined eye now on the IR satellite via the photo below. Personally, I think this storm will undoubtedly reach Cat. 5 status. Often times the storm may weaken temporarily while it undergoes what they call the "eye wall replacement" cycle. Basically, the eye has to keep forming new eyes, and it causes, as stated above, temporary weakening, but by no means does it mean the storm as a whole is weakening. South Texas needs to monitor this storm VERY closely. If this storm crosses the Yucatan Pen. as expected, a lot of weakening will occur. What happens after that is vitally important. If it crosses the Gulf, strengethening may occur again before hitting Texas, but if the storm continues over land into Mexico, then the storm will get ripped apart. So, many questions still need to be answered. But the high pressure system that is giving us all this hot weather is the reason the Gulf appears to be saved by this monster right now. Update tomorrow at some point. I cannot wait to see what the visible satellite of this storm looks like. What a "perfect"
storm this should be!

Friday: 4:30 PM

Here is an awesome picture I thought ya'll might wanna see. What a pretty storm I must say. Unfortunately this storm will cause some serious problems for somebody. So enjoy the view from space...To see it enlarged, just click on it.



And on another note, I've noticed that squirrels have started collecting their food for the Fall and Winter seasons. Fall can't be too far away. My hunch is within' 4 weeks, some much cooler air will filter down from Canada...whether it will be permanent or not is another story, but some taste of fall isn't too far away. Meanwhile, the models today look bleak to say the least. Next week looks brutally hot again, with not much hope of rainfall. However, Hurricane Dean will be the biggest cause for concern. Where will he go? That will hopefully be answered by early next week. Enjoy your weekend everyone.

Friday: 11 AM

Not much more news on Hurricane Dean other than the fact he continues heading towards the Lesser Antilles, and at this point, still the Yucutan. HOWEVER, a 5 day forecast track is still obviously highly suceptible to rather significant changes, so a northward jog or southward jog in the storms path is not only possible, but even likely. So if you live along the Gulf of Mexico, anyone should be on the lookout. The scary things about Hurricanes is that they are really the only type of weather phenomenon that behave "as they want." What makes these storms unpredictable for the most part is that they kinda like to go wherever they want. Obviously a steering wind can lead it towards a general direction, but they are powerful enough to make movements north, south, east, or west. An updated visible satellite picture is on the bottom of the post.

Now, Chattanooga hit 104 degrees yesterday!! Even hotter than Wednesdays temperature, which also means that we broke records consecutive days. If there is any good news on the horizon, it would be that 100 degree temperatures seem to be over with at least for the next week, but 90's are still expected to be around. And with added humidity, it will start feeling even worse outside. But not much rain has fallen anyone across the area, and not much is expected in the meantime. Some of you may see some scattered shs/ts today, but other than that, only isolated at best is expected over the next week. Now, if Hurricane Dean does move towards the Gulf of Mexico, then we need to be on the lookout for perhaps some much needed rain that often times comes with Hurricanes around our area. But that's still a ways off, so anything can happen. And just for the record, Autumn is officially only 36 days away!

~Jordan

Photo of Dean:

Track expected of Dean:

It's official now. Hurricane Dean continues to churn in the Carribbean this morning, and visible Satellite imagery showed a much more organized storm compared to yesterday, and much bigger for that matter. In fact, in the picture below, you can see an eye clearly forming now.

The track continues to show an impact on the Yucutan Peninsula, however, anything can happen in 5 days.

Now, Chattanooga will continue to "bake" today, and yesterday we set a record of 103 degrees for the date! 103. Today looks to climb above 100 degrees as well, which will mark the third time this summer to do so...which, interestingly enough, even for Chattanooga standards is rare. We may see some storms finally begin to fire up early next week, but with a drought like we have, don't get your hopes up. Update later...

BTW: I've just changed some options, so ANYONE can comment now!! You have a question? Leave a comment! It's that easy...looking forward to hearing from you.

The Tropics are heating up!


Might as well go ahead and make a quick update. The tropics are heating up, and what is soon to be Hurricane Dean is churning up the waters in the Carribbean. Where it's heading is the worrisome question right now, as the Gulf looks to be a definite possibility early next week, but for now, the Lesser Antilles and Yucatan look to be in the immediate path. Any jog northward could mean that Florida and anyone along the Gulf Coast could be influenced by this TS (soon to be hurricane.) Here is the latest track and satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Dean. (Winds are currently 70 MPH) So the big question: will it affect us? Way, way too far out to be sure, but if it hits the Gulf Coast region, we would be in a favorable area for tropical rains, which as strange as it sounds, it could take a tropical cyclone to break this pattern we are in right now. The pressure is down to 991 mb as of 11 PM, so it is strengthening.

Test

Just testing this out...