Sunday: I'm back!

Sorry for the lack of posting. With the drought and all, it was rather difficult to find things to talk about. However, the pattern has been very interesting, and i'm back posting again. This time I won't go so long without posting. :-)

To say the least, the weather this next week bears significant watching. The models are all over the place as has been usual the last few weeks/months. I have never seen such terrible flip-flops in all of them...so it's very difficult to make any forecast with much confidence. So with that being said, I can pretty much just tell you what the models are saying...and we'll go from there. They will change from day to day. But first, what are the weather possibilities this week?

1.) For one, cold weather WILL return. Tomorrow (Sunday) looks to be the only day garunteed reach the 50's for highs. Next weekend could be the coldest we've seen since the recent Arctic chill a few weeks ago.

2.) Some southern stream shortwaves could affect out weather. This is the tricky part. The storm, or storms, will be coming from the Gulf of Mexico. So any of the following could occur:

a. The arctic air coming down South could force the storm, or storms, to our South (this would be around Midweek.)

b. The arctic cold front hangs to our North and West with the storm coming first. This would lead to warmer temperatures are PRIMARILY rain, but snow cannot be ruled out, especially for the mountains.

c. With very precise timing, these two phase together and we get one heck of a snowstorm. Some of the models have hinted at this, but have backed off.

d. The storm comes and cold air is in place, but surface temperatures are just a tad too warm. This has been the case for the last several years, and to be honest, I can see how this is the more reasonable solution given how these storms have performed the last few years.

There are other solutions, but these are probably the most "likely" solutions. Now watch the models flip-flop and something totally different happens. Welcome to the joys of forecasting. Now to the models. I'll be using the GFS/NAM models with most of the maps I post...on the maps will be what they are showing.

The blue line is the 850 mb line (or freezing line) at about 5000'. That is vital for snowfall to form. On the last map, the dashed blue lines are the thicknessess, or cold air depth. When you are cold enough in both of those temperatures, and surface temperatures support snow, then snowfall is a good bet. This is why we need to keep an eye on this.


So, I have showed on the maps what is happening with the storm as it develops. With this model (which is the 00z run of the GFS btw), we would have a little snow with this system, but now much. What makes this difficult is that virtually every model has a different solution. This is just one of MANY models...so it's impossible to say what will/won't happen.