Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Tuesday: 9:30 PM

Well, this is much later than I said it would be, and I'm sorry for that! Anyway, Hurricane Dean made landfall today on the Yucatan as a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 165 MPH (or 264 kmph for you metric fans), causing extensive damage and quiet amazing rainfall. The pressure fell to 906 mb (26.71") shortly before landfall, which will go down in the history books as being the 9th strongest hurricane in terms of pressure, and the first Category 5 storm to hit the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Andrew back in 1992. (Which some of you may remember.) The storm has fallen apart as expected, now down to 80 mph sustained winds. And they are forecast to intensify once again as it hits the Gulf, but I really question how much re-development will be able to occur before it hits central Mexico. Anyways, point being, the worst of the storm is over, and now Mexico braces for whatever Dean brings their way.
Now, on to Chattanooga weather. Today was not quiet as hot as recent days, but still hot nonetheless. Looking at the 18z (7 PM) GFS model, the very last frame, which happens to be over two weeks away, showed a low pressure system finally bringing down some much cooler air this way, but that's rediculous to believe right now, since it's the worst of the models runs, and it's the first time it's showed up. Plus, it's two weeks away. So in the meantime, this pattern just isn't going to break down, and the heat and extreme drought conditions will continue. I am putting together a winter weather outlook that I will hope to post sometime in September, if not October. And I'll tell you right off the bat, it's going to be a tough call. History shows hot summers lead to cold winters, yet La Nina is being forecasted by NOAA to provide a warm and dry winter. So I'm not sure which way to lean yet because NOAA last year forecasted an El Nino event, which never really materialized at all. In fact, what should have been a cold, snowy winter for the South was mild overall. Anyway, I'll hope to have that for ya'll sometime in the next month or two.

Also Invest 92L hasn't made any progress today, and continues to remain very unorganized. However, the SHIPS model still shows this thing developing, and conditions are favorable, so we'll wait and see what happens. Also, if it does develop, the track is very worrisome, as the most likely candidate for landfall would be Florida. Again, this is all speculation right now, but we'll have to see what happens. That's all for now. Update tomorrow. Night everyone.

No comments: