Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Wednesday: 1 AM Rainfall on the way!

That's right folks...RAINFALL IS ON THE WAY! And if some of the models are right, we could be for quiet a bit' as well! I am hoping that the GFS model is right, especially the run that just came out. (00z run/7 PM EST.) Below is the 60 hour accumulated rainfall estimating from the latest GFS run. Lets hope that this is correct! This would be an absolute blessing! I have my concerns as always (as is typical with the GFS model) that is may be having convective feedback problems, meaning that it is overplaying the rainfall amounts. However, it's been consistent with these beneficial amounts of rainfall...the NAM is quiet a bit' lower with amounts of rain with the latest run, but I'm not buying that solution either. But, we shall see. Early next week could bring another beneficial round of rainfall! So the pattern seems to be much, much more encouraging. Also, some much colder air may be in the works sometime soon as well, but I want to see more solid signs that this will occur before forecasting that.

BTW: I do want to point out that the possibility does exist for some severe storms on Thursday, and that you need to keep an eye to your local TV stations or NWS. The models have been in agreement that the severe weather threat is increasing as we head closer to the event, so that is something to keep an eye with.

That's it for this very early mornings post. Have a great day everyone.

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