Monday Evening: Severe Weather possible

As for areas to our West, it's already occuring. There is a lot of unstable air and shear (or "turbulence") in the areas that are currently seeing these strong storms. Fortunately for us, these storms, which will continue to form into a squall line, will occur in our area most likely during the nighttime hours, or early morning hours. And as I've stated before, normally storms weaken when they lose daytime heating. Our air won't be as unstable, but the winds aloft will continue to be very strong, and the trough coming through will become what we call negatively tilted, which may actually enhance some of the storms, or cause a few of them to be severe. So severe weather cannot be discounted in our region tomorrow morning. While not as strong as to our West, this squall line will bring some of the very strong winds to the surface, and a few tornadoes can't be taken out of the picture too because of the shearing winds as well. So PLEASE stay tuned to local stations and if you have a weather radio (which you all should btw), then keep it close by. The morning commute could be stormy. And a second line of storms could come through later on tomorrow during the daytime with the actual cold front, and those could be severe too, if not more severe. So it could be an active day. But the rain associated with it won't last too long, but it will come down hard and fast, so watch for flash flooding if you do happen to get caught under these storms.

Temperatures could fall tomorrow afternoon as the front comes through, but as expected, no snow should fall with this system. The models did indeed continue to trend weaker with the "low", thus the cold air advection won't be as strong, and the backlash moisture should stay well north and west of us too as the "low" will be too far to our West to swing it our way.

Now, what lies down the road? Well, as usual, the models continue to exhibit bad run-to-run consistencies, and they all continue to have there own little solutions. If you were to take the ECMWF model (European model for all you weather peeps out there), then we would have a potential snowstorm anywhere from Northern AL, GA into the Northeast with perhaps a very strong Nor'Easter for you Northeastern folks. However, if you take the GFS solution, then the storm remains unphased with the Northern Branch of the Jet Stream and gets pushed out to sea.
One thing I think is becoming clear though. There WILL be a storm, but where and what happens to it is the biggest question and one I will continue to try to answer as the model runs come out. I for one am hoping the Euro model is right. There are several factors that would support a large storm across the East...and that's why we need to keep an eye on it. Most models do not have a large storm, some do.
Also, the time frame would be late week. I'll keep you posted and have an updated outlook tomorrow. Stay safe everyone!

~Jordan