Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Tuesday: Yet Another Severe Weather Outbreak

:::EDIT:::
1:00 AM Wednesday
Just took a look at the latest 00z GFS run. Very interesting to say the least. :-) I'll update this tomorrow and explain why. Stay safe everyone!
:::END EDIT:::

Good evening everyone! We are now facing yet another severe weather outbreak in the midsts of what has been a very active late winter season...

As the cold front associated with our system coming through, temperatures appear to be rising just ahead of the front before a drop off behind. It is pulling up some very warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. But the question remains, even though the folks to our West are experiencing Severe Weather, will we see it as well?

The question to that is: probably, but not as bad. The instability looks to lack just a little bit' more around our area, but the shear, which has been mighty impressive with just about every system thus far, appears to be very strong again, and it doesn't take much for these winds to get pulled to the surface with a very strong Jet Stream above us as well. So Severe Weather CANNOT be ruled out, especially based on what has happened so far this year.

Taking a quick look at the Storm Prediction Centers storm reports for today, there have only been 30 thus far, but there are certainly more to come. Fortunately only 2 tornadoes have been spotted, one in Texas and one in Missouri. The one in Texas was very minor; only an EF0 in fact. No information on strength with the MO one. But as expected, the wind reports are the greatest, with 26 reports, and I expect that will continue to be the biggest issue as we head into tomorrow as well.

More beneficial rain is expected as well, with probably somewhere between .75" and 1.00" of rainfall. It's nice to see some major progress being made on the rain deficit.

For the rest of the week, things are looking pretty good. We may see a cool down just in time for Easter Sunday, with perhaps some freezing temperatures...? We'll see...not buying it yet.

I will have an update tomorrow on the severe weather if need be. Have a good evening everyone!

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