Saturday: Happy Easter! Quiet weather ahead...

I hope all of you have a wonderful Easter tomorrow!

The weather the next few days looks very quiet, but cool. Tomorrow and Monday should remain in the 50's. However, warmer air looks to return once again later on into the middle and later part of next week.

Believe it or not, I got a lot of sun this weekend! It's a good reminder that Spring is here. In fact, the back of my neck is sunburned pretty bad, and my arms too. It is possible to get sunburned in March as well...time for an early start on tanning! (which I did today too.)

Not much rainfall is in store anytime soon. Later next week looks to be our next best shot at rainfall. Until then, I hope all of you enjoy this wonderful weather and I hope it reminds you of the incredible blessings our Creator bestows on us!

One last thing: last post I mentioned some interesting weather showing up on models. At one point, most of the models were showing a potential snowstorm for even the Southeast! What a shock that would have been...but the energy associated with the short wave in Texas appears to be heading more South than East now, so there won't be a storm...at least not around here. However, the Eastern Carolinas may need to keep a very close eye on this one. While the prospects for snow are minimal, there is the chance that a storm may develop close enough to the coast, and with cold air around, it needs to be watched. But as it appears right now, not much if anything will occur.

~Jordan

Tuesday: Yet Another Severe Weather Outbreak

:::EDIT:::
1:00 AM Wednesday
Just took a look at the latest 00z GFS run. Very interesting to say the least. :-) I'll update this tomorrow and explain why. Stay safe everyone!
:::END EDIT:::

Good evening everyone! We are now facing yet another severe weather outbreak in the midsts of what has been a very active late winter season...

As the cold front associated with our system coming through, temperatures appear to be rising just ahead of the front before a drop off behind. It is pulling up some very warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. But the question remains, even though the folks to our West are experiencing Severe Weather, will we see it as well?

The question to that is: probably, but not as bad. The instability looks to lack just a little bit' more around our area, but the shear, which has been mighty impressive with just about every system thus far, appears to be very strong again, and it doesn't take much for these winds to get pulled to the surface with a very strong Jet Stream above us as well. So Severe Weather CANNOT be ruled out, especially based on what has happened so far this year.

Taking a quick look at the Storm Prediction Centers storm reports for today, there have only been 30 thus far, but there are certainly more to come. Fortunately only 2 tornadoes have been spotted, one in Texas and one in Missouri. The one in Texas was very minor; only an EF0 in fact. No information on strength with the MO one. But as expected, the wind reports are the greatest, with 26 reports, and I expect that will continue to be the biggest issue as we head into tomorrow as well.

More beneficial rain is expected as well, with probably somewhere between .75" and 1.00" of rainfall. It's nice to see some major progress being made on the rain deficit.

For the rest of the week, things are looking pretty good. We may see a cool down just in time for Easter Sunday, with perhaps some freezing temperatures...? We'll see...not buying it yet.

I will have an update tomorrow on the severe weather if need be. Have a good evening everyone!

Thursday: Revisiting the Blizzard of 1993

The Blizzard of 1993, also known as the Storm of the Century, was without question the strongest storm to ever strike the Eastern United States. And it brought so much more than just blizzard conditions. Florida reported 11 Tornadoes as a very intense squall line raced through the state. At the very height of the storm, this massive storm created intense conditions anywhere from Central America to Canada! Locally, this storm shut down not only Chattanooga, but most cities anywhere from Birmingham to the Northeast. 20" was officially recorded in the city, but many places outside of downtown received anywhere from 2-4" more. The drifts recorded in some places was astounding, with up to 14' recorded in the highest peaks of the Smoky Mountains. I have provided some satellite images as this storm emerged from the Gulf of Mexico . They really do look like a Hurricane. In fact, at the height of the storm, the central pressure set a record low of 28.35", or 960 mb. To put that in perspective, that is equivalent to a Category 2 or 3 Hurricane. That just shows how powerful this storm was. And as Eric Thomas from WBTV in Charlotte pointed out, "...this may not be just the storm of the century...but the strongest storm in the history of mankind." (Quote found on weathermatrix.)

Check out some of the wind gusts recorded with this storm as well:
Key West, FL: 109 MPH
Mount Washington, NH: 144 MPH
Flattop Mountain, NC: 101 MPH

The storm surge was a huge issue along coastal areas, with many houses being destroyed not only in Florida, but in the Northeast as well. Every major airport on the East Coast was shut down as some point during the storm, which is the first time it had ever happened...and, if my memory serves me correct, has not happened since.

The snowfall amounts were astounding as well;
Mt. LeConte, TN: 60"
Mt. Mitchel, NC: 50"
Snowshoe, WV: 44"
Birmingham, AL: 17"
Atlanta, GA: 4" (more in rural areas)
Albany, NY: 27"
Chattanooga, TN: 20"
Mobile, AL: 3"
Even portions of the Florida Panhandle recorded a few inches of snow, which just shows how magnificent this storm system was as it passed across the Eastern United States.

Even for Cuba, the city of Havana was blacked out for a time as severe weather crossed there region as well.
All in all, over $3 Billion in damage occured in the United State alone, and nearly half the population was affected at some point, along with some 26 states.

Now for the NWS, this storm was quiet an achievement in many ways. For one, this powerful storm was forecast 5 days in advance-the first time a storm of this magnitude had ever been forecast so far in advance. This launched a new numerical model era where significant advancements occured in forecasting due to the impressive consistency provided and the incredible amount of data the NWS was able to use to better make models more accurate in the future...and so far, they have been much better than they were in the early 90's.

I have provided a rough map of where the general areas of snowfall fell, with data courtesy of AccuWeather. Interesting to note that many big cities received more snowfall than most areas surrounding them. Many people wonder if we will ever experience a storm of this magnitude in our lifetime again. I cannot answer that question, but many would agree that this type of storm is a once in a lifetime event...and I can't argue with that. But at the same time, I also agree that the weather is a very unpredictable thing, and anything can happen anytime. Sure it can happen again, and most assuredly will. The question is when. And with that, all I can say is: stay tuned!

Quick Update/Tomorrows SOTC Review

Good evening everyone. Got my scanner in, and it's really neat. Anyway, I know I said I would post an article on the Storm of the Century today, but that will have to wait until tomorrow. I need to do some research and stuff, so I'll have that ready by tomorrow evening.

The weather looks about the same as Monday. No big changes as of right now. But I'll keep an eye on it and keep you updated with precise forecasts if not tomorrow, Friday.

I hope you are all enjoying this wonderful Spring weather! Tomorrow promises to be the warmest yet, with perhaps mid-upper 70s!

~Jordan

Monday Evening: Quiet times ahead.

Well, the Saturday winter weather is over, and I think my forecast overall went fairly well. We did pick up 1" of snow up here on Lookout, with some mountains getting more, but the valleys didn't see much. For a period Saturday morning the snowfall sure was impressive, but it didn't last too long. But it sure was cold! But I'm pretty pleased with what transpired compared to the forecast. Wish we all could have had more!! Maybe next winter.

Now the rest of the work week looks rather benign until later on Friday. So until then, enjoy the sunshine and WARM temperatures! That's right, the temperatures look to reach the upper 60's and even perhaps 70's on Wednesday and Thursday. What a treat! The next threat of rainfall appears late this week/early weekend. I'll be tracking that and provide updates as we head closer to the event. With the very warm air, the severe weather threat is a there as well given the storm track. Again, too far away to predict with much certainty right now, but I'll be updating this potential.

Also, I have just purchased a scanner which I should be getting within' a few days. I'll be able to post maps now outlining where I think certain severe weather events will occur...both winter weather and severe thunderstorms. I'm looking forward to it!!

Have a wonderful evening.

~Jordan