Quick Update/Tomorrows SOTC Review

Good evening everyone. Got my scanner in, and it's really neat. Anyway, I know I said I would post an article on the Storm of the Century today, but that will have to wait until tomorrow. I need to do some research and stuff, so I'll have that ready by tomorrow evening.

The weather looks about the same as Monday. No big changes as of right now. But I'll keep an eye on it and keep you updated with precise forecasts if not tomorrow, Friday.

I hope you are all enjoying this wonderful Spring weather! Tomorrow promises to be the warmest yet, with perhaps mid-upper 70s!

~Jordan

Monday Evening: Quiet times ahead.

Well, the Saturday winter weather is over, and I think my forecast overall went fairly well. We did pick up 1" of snow up here on Lookout, with some mountains getting more, but the valleys didn't see much. For a period Saturday morning the snowfall sure was impressive, but it didn't last too long. But it sure was cold! But I'm pretty pleased with what transpired compared to the forecast. Wish we all could have had more!! Maybe next winter.

Now the rest of the work week looks rather benign until later on Friday. So until then, enjoy the sunshine and WARM temperatures! That's right, the temperatures look to reach the upper 60's and even perhaps 70's on Wednesday and Thursday. What a treat! The next threat of rainfall appears late this week/early weekend. I'll be tracking that and provide updates as we head closer to the event. With the very warm air, the severe weather threat is a there as well given the storm track. Again, too far away to predict with much certainty right now, but I'll be updating this potential.

Also, I have just purchased a scanner which I should be getting within' a few days. I'll be able to post maps now outlining where I think certain severe weather events will occur...both winter weather and severe thunderstorms. I'm looking forward to it!!

Have a wonderful evening.

~Jordan

***FRIDAY EVENING UPDATE***

***FRIDAY EVENING***Hello everyone. Sorry for the delay in posting. I wanted to keep last nights post because I also wanted to keep he watch/warning map but didn't want to take the time to repost it. So what's the latest thinking? Well, the NWS has issued Heavy Snow Warning/Winter Storm Warnings for what seems like everyone surrounding Chattanooga. Ha! Even North GA/AL are under advisories/warnings. Locally, up to 2" is being forecast, but I'm going to tell you right now that's not happening...definately not in Valley locations, and I'm not even expecting that up here in the mountains. Perhaps a dusting or so...but radar trends haven't been too encouraging here lately and unless this cold air starts coming in quicker and more precipitation breaks out to our South, I just don't see much. So I'm going against the locals and NWS and saying not much will fall. I could be wrong, but we'll see. As always, these type of storms can be hard to predict.

I'll post later on tonight if more developments occur.

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***THURSDAY EVENING POST***

Good evening everyone. As expected, the models CONTINUE to display poor agreement, and this continues to make for a not so confident forecast. While they are coming into better agreement, especially compared to the last few days, there are still some pretty significant differences that would make a world of difference for some people. There may even perhaps be a blizzard for folks to our north from Kentucky into Ohio, but for us locally, the chance for at least some flurries or very light snow showers exist. The question, as always, is "how much will fall?" And unfortunately, I still cannot answer that question with a great amount of confidence. It is interesting that the 18z NAM and GFS models shifted the low a little bit' Eastward, and I would be very interested to see if the NAM goes totally to a track that would take the low East of the Appalachians. As I stated last night, this model was consistent in taking the low West of the Appalachians right over us. I'll be watching that closely.
However, the deformation zone, or axis of heaviest snowfall associated with low pressure systems in the winter, still looks to be way off to our West, but we might be left with some residual moisture that could fall as some flurries/very light snow IF, and I mean IF, the cold air can come in quick enough. I am confident that as least flurries will fall, if not late Friday night, sometime early Saturday morning. However, amounts look light at best. 18z NAM model backed off on the amount of accumulative snowfall compared to it's previous 12z run...with barely 0.1" of equivalent liquid being recorded, which using an 8:1 ratio, would only be around 1/2" at most, and that to me is even too much. But we'll see as these type of systems sometimes bring some surprises. The GFS is very similar btw.

So that's the way things look as of this evening...which isn't too different from last night. But as always i'll keep an eye on it for ya. Will be interesting to see how much snow places like Memphis get.
BTW: there is a winter storm watch for parts of the central/northern Cumberland Platue, and all of Middle TN. Included in this post is a look at the current watches/warnings. Just click on it to get a bigger picture.

American 00z Run Update

Alrighty, I have just finished viewing the NAM and GFS 00z runs...and I must say many questions remain unanswered. It is frustrating and strange to me why these models are so different when the storm is forming later today in Texas! Anyways, the GFS track is mostly the same...with a VERY slight Westward jog, but nothing significant. It is deepening the low a bit' more though...so that is something we'll need to watch closely as the runs continue to come in.

The NAM model is...grrr...frustrating. It is way further West still, and I am still holding on to that happening, especially with the GFS slightly more West...and I am curious as to whether the ECMWF and Canadian models trend way West also. I'll have more tomorrow. I may even post a snow map late tomorrow if I can find the time.

~Jordan

Wednesday: Next Storm

The forecast below is for the Chattanooga area. If you want your region (i.e., Northeast), then please leave a comment below and I will give it my best shot.

Well, after the clouds cleared today, the sun made for a gorgeous afternoon. There was still that fall type feeling in the air though as temperatures stayed in the 50's. And tomorrow promises to be even better with full sunshine and mild temperatures in the 60's! Enjoy it, because we have some major changes coming this way.

The next storm system I am watching will be developing by tomorrow in the Southern Plains with some northern Texas snow and rain elsewhere. This storm is currently in the Desert Southwest but isn't organized at all. We'll have to wait until tomorrow as it heads into the Gulf of Mexico and picks up some moisture. Now on Monday I talked about the fact that the models were all over the place with this storm system. And today, while not nearly as bad, they still have some pretty significant differences...at least enough to make for an "uncomfortable" forecast. The NAM model had been coming into agreement with the GFS, but as of yesterday, it's trying to take this storm up West of the Appalachians as a "Lake cutter", which has been the case just about all winter long. And with the pattern and La Nina, I can very easily see how that happens. The only reason I'm not sticking to that, at least YET, it because most other major models continue to take the storm East of the Appalachians. What's the difference you might ask? Well, if you remain on the Western side of the area of Low Pressure, you are on the "cold side" as well...where the winds come from the North and keep you cooler as the winds around the Low are counter-clockwise, pulling down the cooler air from the north. This is how we get our major snow storms. While that is happening, the low is also pulling up warm air from the South on the Eastern side of the storm. That is why it is critical where the track of the storm is, and also how close the low comes to your area. Typically the worst snows with a storm system occur in what is called a deformation zone where the axis of heaviest snows and convergence occur. A good example of this occured yesterday in St. Louis where the airport received nearly 5" of snow in just 2 hours! Many places received 10-12" by the time the snow ended. This axis of snow is normally a few hundred miles Northwest of the center of low pressure.

Now, what is the current projection? Well, it's still really difficult to say for sure, but right now the most likely track appears to be just to our South heading up into the Carolinas. Normally this would be a classic setup for snow, but there are several things that will play against us this time around. For one, the cold air once again looks to come in too late, and there won't be any cold air ahead of the storm. Obviously that is the most crucial ingredient you need for a storm. Cold air prior to the storm makes all the difference. Granted, if the storm is strong enough it can pull down cold air in time to switch over to snow, and there is still a chance that could happen, but I'm just not seeing much snow right now. While some snow showers could occur, accumulations look minimal at best. But I will keep an eye on this as the setup IS there for a potential snowstorm, but it doesn't look like all the ingredients will come together at the right time for a substantial amount. Anywhere from Memphis to Nashville and Northwest of that up into Kentucky, Ohio, etc. could be in for it though...they will be closer to the cold air source and could see a good amount of snow if things come together in time. But for us, I think the rain should arrive sometime around early Friday morning, but I'm seeing a rather big dry slot occuring though during the afternoon. So we should see a few hours of rain, but the afternoon just looks cloudy, but dry at this point...or at least in my opinion. Now there could be some wrap-around moisture on the back side which is typical for the lows, but there doesn't appear to be very much of it with this storm right now. So expect some rain showers/flurries Friday night into Saturday.

Now, all of this is based on current projections and could change very easily as more model data comes in. Obviously it is very difficult to make a forecast when the models are all over the place, but hopefully they will start coming to a concensus here shortly...or at least a better concensus.

What about Saturday? Well, it looks VERY chilly to say the least, with temperatures perhaps not getting out of the 30's for highs.

I'll have an update out shortly...after looking at tonights 00z runs, I'll make a short post on whether or not I think the current forecast is on track or not.

Till then, take care.

BTW: In case any of you Northeastern folks are reading, I think that this will be an inland runner for you guys as well. But, the cool thing about weather is the fact that it can always change! But I won't write about it unless someone asks me too simply because I do not know how many people from the Northeast, if any, read this.

~Jordan