Saturday Evening Update

Happy first day of March everyone! As usual it has been a very long while since I have updated the blog, and again I apologize. I will try my best to keep it updated from now on. There is plenty to talk about in the weather department, so lets get right to it. What promised to be a very interesting storm early next week is now beginning to look rather "blah" on the models if you know what I mean. At one point it was looking like a rediculously powerful storm would affect us, but recent models are not deepening this storm nearly as much as they were around our region. Many, if not most, of the models were thinking that we would actually see some snowfall on the back end of the storm on Tuesday after the main rains came through and strong cold air advection occured. However, now the storm looks weaker and thus the cold air intrusion isn't nearly as strong as was being predicted, and since the storm is weaker, the "backlash", or "wraparound" moisture looks very minimal as well. So, our snowfall chances have basically fallen apart here over the last day and a half or so. There is also a chance for the moels to go back to their original thinking, but normally, being this close to the event, they begin to really hammer down on details, so I think the concensus is for a weaker storm with perhaps some strong storms ahead of the front on Tuesday. That is the other aspect of the storm that needs to be talked about also. Many folks, especially to our South, could experience some very powerful storms, especially on Tuesday. In fact, most mets. are very concerned about the potential for severe weather, but I think the biggest threat will be to our South where they do need to keep a very close eye on what could be heading our way come early next week. Knowing how significant the severe weather outbreaks have been thus far this winter season, I'm afraid that this one could be very bad as well. So PLEASE stay tuned for updates. These are very serious events, and I think everyone has learned a lesson about the importance of safety in severe weather threats...namely the terrible tragedies that occured in West TN and so on during the last outbreak.

Now, Tuesday will bring colder weather, but I really don't see much hope for snow across our area. West Tenessee could be a different story, and several inches could fall. But I think if you head especially up towards Paducah, KY is where you'll really start to see the significant snowfalls with perhaps some people seeing more than 8" of the white stuff.

Again, strength of the storm is everything, and right now it's not looking nearly as powerful as it was, but that is something that I will be watching very closely as Tuesday draws closer...any difference in strength and ESPECIALLY location of the Low Pressure center will be crucial to not only our winter weather chances, but our severe weather chances as it comes our way also.

So what about beyond midweek into late week? Well, that's a really hard question to answer right now, as the models have had poor run-to-run consistency, and they all have different solutions. So I'll be updating that as better handling comes along. But I will say that we need to keep an eye on winter weather chances, and cold air appears likely sometime late next week.

I also want to point out real quickly that we are less than two weeks away from the anniversary of the Storm of the Century in March of 1993. As many of you remember, that storm dumped nearly 2' of snowfall in the city of Chattanooga, with even more in surrounding regions. That was an amazing storm, and I plan on writing a little bit' about it on the 13th of March. What a storm...

That's it for now. Will update later!
~Jordan

Thursday: Quite Weather Ahead...new favorite website

The weather appears to be very quite the next few days...at least across the Southeast. The Northeast will have to deal with harsh winter temperatures and perhaps even snow this weekend, but since I doubt anybody from the Northeast reads this, I won't bother discussing in much detail what lies ahead in that neck of the woods.

An update on the Jackson County, AL Tornado is not good. While no other deaths have been stated, it appears as if the Tornado will go down in the History books as an F4, with winds near 180 MPH. Damage is extensive. And unfortunately, 4 other people have died in Alabama as a result of another twister that struck Lawrence County. That Tornado appears to be an F3.

It really is hard to describe in writing or even discussion how terrible this outbreak truly was. Watching the pictures on TV is sad to say the least. Tennessee was hit the hardest with nearly 30 deaths being confirmed. Phil Bredeson has asked for help from George W. Bush and wants to issue a State of Emergency. According to the media, the President plans on touring the hardest hit places tomorrow.

But the weather still appears to be rather benign as we head into the weekend. While temps. may drop a little bit', nothing of significant consequence appears to be headed our way...at least for now. There are several storms we will have to watch for next week. None appear to be of the wintry variety right now, but could another Severe Weather Outbreak be headed our way? That is something that we will need to keep an eye on as we approach the midweek time frame.

Also, I wanted to share a link to one of my new favorite sites. It's icecap.us. This site has some wonderful climate discussions along with significant weather stories. You should check it out.

Speaking of significant weather stories, parts of Alaska hit near -70 degrees this morning, with one unconfirmed -70 degree reading. Can you say........COLD?

Tuesday Evening: Tornadoes Hit Close to Home

It was a rough morning to say the least. These storms wound up staying together and remained organized much better than previously anticipated. While strong winds were expected regardless, the severity was pretty impressive...especially for the time of day and time of year they hit. When looking back over the last two days, I am amazed at this Severe Weather Outbreak. Over 50 tornadoes have been reported. The worst so far probably occured in Jackson, TN at Union College. Thankfully no one was killed...but damage is downright amazing.

Unfortunately, there were many deaths as well. Tennessee alone is nearing 30 deaths, and many more injuries. The most local death occured in Jackson County, AL in Rosalie near Sand Mountain. 15 other people were injured as well. According to officials, a Tornado struck around 7:25 EST, 6:25 CST. Preliminary reports suggest that this was an F3 Tornado, with winds over 130 MPH.

Chattanooga (Hamilton County) was even under a Tornado Warning around 7 this morning, but thankfully there was no Tornado touchdown. However, the winds were still strong, and the rain was downright torrential. My estimation based on rainfall totals over such a short time suggest than rain fell at nearly 3" for per for awhile. Flash flooding was definately a problem for some people.

My thoughts and prayers go out to those affected by the Tornadoes. Having been through a very strong Tornado, I know how terrifying it is. I don't, however, know what it's like to lose a loved one.

We can now say goodbye to severe weather across the South for awhile now, and we need it too. We are off to a early start to severe weather, and I am very concerned that the outbreak was this severe in early February. Makes me wonder what March and April will bring. And it's always a concern when Torandoes hit so close to home. Anywhere in Chattanooga could have easily seen a Tornado given how turbulent the atmosphere was.

So why was the weather so bad so early in the morning? If you read my earlier post, I mentioned that two factors were critical as to what we would see today. One was how warm it would get yesterday (and we hit 74 for the record), and second, the amount of sunlight that we would see. The warmer it is and the more sun you see, the better chances of seeing severe storms are. Even though these storms still struck so early in the morning, the fact is, the atmosphere was still very unstable because of the amount of warmth and the sunlight that occured yesterday. Had we remained cloudy all day, chances are the storms would have been your typical thundershowers, but with a little more gusty winds.

This is a good lesson in severe weather. Instability is critical for the enhancement of severe storms. These storms WERE able to stay together as they reached our area this morning.

We are heading into a little cooler, but still mild pattern, and a little drier weather as well in the next few days. Next chance of rain occurs next week. Will cover that later.

Hope everyone is ok after the bad weather this morning!

~Jordan

Monday: Midday Outlook

The rain has come and gone the last 24-36 hrs. Yesterday featured more rain than previously anticipated, and today has brought even more rain, which is a welcome sight! Even though we are in the heart of winter, we are still suffering from a drought, the worst of which occured this past summer. So any bit' of rain is welcome! And the best news is: more is on the way.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Tuesday Night for our area. Not far to our West from Middle Alabama to Western Arkanasas lies a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms. Once again we have several things downplaying our chances of harsh storms. While we will most likely see storms with very gusty winds, the biggest threat appears to be to our West. Why? Well, for one, the timing of these storms is crucial. Based on current timing prospects, the storms are expected to cross our area in the middle of the night; not very favorable for the strongest storms. If this were to occur during the daytime our chances would be much greater. The other major factor is that our air appears to be more stable as well...a lot of this will depend on how much, if any, sun occurs tomorrow, and how warm the temperatures get. The warmer it is, the more "fuel" the storms have to work with.

But rain is a good bet though. Using a blend of the NAM/GFS models I would expect about an average of 1-11/2" of rain. So a good soaking to say the least. After that we should be heading into a cool, but drier pattern. But the airmass following this storm appears to be from the Polar regions rather than the Arctic regions, so it will still be rather mild compared to what it could be at this same of year. 50's (perhaps upper 40's) seem like a good bet.

I will update the chances for severe storms later on. As has been the case with the recent storms though, winds do appear to be quiet strong. So keep that in mind as you make plans later on tomorrow and Wednesday.

45 Days till' Spring

~Jordan

Sunday: I'm back!

Sorry for the lack of posting. With the drought and all, it was rather difficult to find things to talk about. However, the pattern has been very interesting, and i'm back posting again. This time I won't go so long without posting. :-)

To say the least, the weather this next week bears significant watching. The models are all over the place as has been usual the last few weeks/months. I have never seen such terrible flip-flops in all of them...so it's very difficult to make any forecast with much confidence. So with that being said, I can pretty much just tell you what the models are saying...and we'll go from there. They will change from day to day. But first, what are the weather possibilities this week?

1.) For one, cold weather WILL return. Tomorrow (Sunday) looks to be the only day garunteed reach the 50's for highs. Next weekend could be the coldest we've seen since the recent Arctic chill a few weeks ago.

2.) Some southern stream shortwaves could affect out weather. This is the tricky part. The storm, or storms, will be coming from the Gulf of Mexico. So any of the following could occur:

a. The arctic air coming down South could force the storm, or storms, to our South (this would be around Midweek.)

b. The arctic cold front hangs to our North and West with the storm coming first. This would lead to warmer temperatures are PRIMARILY rain, but snow cannot be ruled out, especially for the mountains.

c. With very precise timing, these two phase together and we get one heck of a snowstorm. Some of the models have hinted at this, but have backed off.

d. The storm comes and cold air is in place, but surface temperatures are just a tad too warm. This has been the case for the last several years, and to be honest, I can see how this is the more reasonable solution given how these storms have performed the last few years.

There are other solutions, but these are probably the most "likely" solutions. Now watch the models flip-flop and something totally different happens. Welcome to the joys of forecasting. Now to the models. I'll be using the GFS/NAM models with most of the maps I post...on the maps will be what they are showing.

The blue line is the 850 mb line (or freezing line) at about 5000'. That is vital for snowfall to form. On the last map, the dashed blue lines are the thicknessess, or cold air depth. When you are cold enough in both of those temperatures, and surface temperatures support snow, then snowfall is a good bet. This is why we need to keep an eye on this.


So, I have showed on the maps what is happening with the storm as it develops. With this model (which is the 00z run of the GFS btw), we would have a little snow with this system, but now much. What makes this difficult is that virtually every model has a different solution. This is just one of MANY models...so it's impossible to say what will/won't happen.